As we exit the third quarter, we provide the attached summary of data for the quarter along with an outlook for fourth quarter 2025. We made our way through what has been a seasonally weak period historically with nice gains in US equities. Strength driven by rising expectations of additional Federal Reserve easing and solid GDP growth. Recently trade tension between the US and China have reemerged as additional risks with the US threatening 100% new tariffs on Chinese imports as a result of China’s restrictions on access to rare earth minerals needed in manufacture of electronics and electric vehicles. We attached this article from Capital Group providing good analysis of the effects of tariffs thus far in relation to inflation and economic growth. Add this trade flareup to the ongoing government shutdown and equity markets sold off sharply late last week. The track record of trade negotiations has been “scary” headlines followed by deal making.

We have sighted in most of our recent monthly updates the importance of monthly economic reports relating to employment and inflation. The above-mentioned government shutdown has tabled these reports leaving investors to view alternative private sector data as a surrogate. Private data has shown a continuation in the softness of labor markets and a modest uptick with inflation. Forward interest rate markets have extrapolated this data into two additional quarter point rate cuts still in 2025.

Despite the recent volatility the attractiveness of equities as a long-term asset to protect against inflation remains as governments around the world continue to borrow and spend. Delaying fiscal retrenchment and prioritizing the employment picture over inflation seems to be the politically favored path. In addition, equities should be the long-term beneficiary of AI related productivity gains. The AI trade needs to eventually broaden from AI infrastructure buildout to everyday companies benefiting from its operational efficiencies. We have entered what is typically the best 90-day period of returns historically with continued rate cuts on the horizon. We summarize with the mindset of look past the scary trade headlines and don’t fight the FED.

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