$576.07…that is the amount of the check that arrived at the mailbox of Julian Simon, a University of Maryland economist, in October 1990. The check was the result of a bet that was lost by Paul Ehrlich, a professor of biology at Stanford University who passed away on March 26^th, 2026 at age 93. Professor Ehrlich was the best-selling author of the 1968 book The Population Bomb, which posited that the world’s population was growing so fast that it would outstrip the food supply and cause mass starvation, including societal collapse due to widespread famine and resource wars…and that mankind was essentially doomed. The book sold over 2 million copies, and Professor Ehrlich was so popular and sought after that he appeared multiple times on The Johnny Carson Show.

He continued his apocalyptic, dire warnings throughout his lifetime, publishing many more articles and books. But he did get pushback, even among his colleagues. On September 29, 1980, one of those colleagues, Julian Simon, proposed a bet. “Pick any raw material,” he told Ehrlich, “and choose any future date. I’ll bet the price will go down.” Ehrlich accepted, and five metals were selected: copper, chromium, nickel, tin, and tungsten. They agreed to compare the inflation-adjusted prices 10 years later. If the real prices rose, Simon would pay Ehrlich, and if they fell, Ehrlich would pay Simon.

Ehrlich was certain that population growth would make resources scarcer, thus more expensive. Simon, on the other hand, was betting that human beings would find ways to make resources more abundant. His argument was that, yes, the population will increase…meaning we will need more food and resources, but more importantly, it also will mean more minds to think, invent, and solve problems. One saw each human being as a claimant on scarcity…the other saw the possibility that each person has the capacity to stretch resources and make life better for others. The resources we all have are not a fixed quantity, but rather something that can be expanded with ingenuity and human intelligence.

The result…by September 29, 1990, the world’s population had increased by about 850 million people, a rise of 19%. Inflation over that span was 57%, yet the nominal price of the five-metal basket barely rose from $1,000 to $1,004. In real terms, the basket fell by about 36%. Ehrlich mailed Simon the difference: $576.07. This is chronicled in the book The Bet by Paul Sabin. (See footnote below for more detail.)

Simon understood what we fervently believe…things evolve over time, and human beings are teachers, problem solvers, inventors, entrepreneurs, engineers, scientists, workers, and purveyors of good (mostly). More people equate to more positive outcomes for humanity. The arc of progress and innovation has always been upward sloping. This does not mean we are naïve to the real problems in the world, and we fully know that tragedy and sorrow are also part of the human condition. We don’t take this for granted…freedom and liberty provide the fertile ground for this innovation; we must always look to preserve it.

Back in 1990, the check for $576.07 was proof that it is not a good idea to bet against human beings…we believe that’s still true today…our long-term optimism is unwavering!

*Despite the high general inflation of the 1980s, Ehrlich lost the bet decisively. The prices of all five metals dropped when adjusted for inflation. Here is why the steady or declining prices occurred:

• Substitution: When copper became expensive, the telecommunications industry began replacing copper wire with fiber optics (made from silicon, one of the most abundant elements on Earth).
• Technological Innovation: Better mining technology made it cheaper to extract metals from lower-grade ores that were previously ignored.
• New Discoveries: High prices in the late 1970s incentivized exploration, leading to the discovery of massive new deposits outside of traditional mining regions.
• Efficiency: Manufacturers learned to use less metal. For example, aluminum cans were redesigned to be lighter, reducing the wall thickness and the lid size.