Optimism Corner

From Edison to AI: The Future Builds on Optimism

By Robert S. Loeb

September 2024

One of our favorite authors at Venture Visionary Partners is Morgan Housel, who wrote the New York Times bestseller The Psychology of Money in 2020. Recently, he wrote another book called Same as Ever. The book is filled with rationally optimistic stories and anecdotes, mixed in with historical perspectives that reinforce our long-term bullish view of the world (and the markets).

One interesting observation comes from a chapter called “The Wonders of the Future”. Housel writes, “A common view through history is that past innovation was magnificent, but future innovation must be limited because we’ve picked all the low-hanging fruit.” On January 12, 1908, The Washington Post ran a full-page spread headlined, “America’s Thinking Men Forecast the Wonders of the Future”. Among the men buried in the fine print was Thomas Edison. Edison had already changed the world at this point; he was the Steve Jobs of his time. The Post editors asked, “Is the age of invention passing?” Edison answered…. “Passing???” He repeated the question in astonishment that such a question should be asked. He explained… “No, it hasn’t started yet. That should answer your question. Anything else?” They then asked, “Do you believe the next 50 years will see as great a mechanical and scientific development as the past half century?” “Greater, much greater,” Edison replied. He went on to say this development would cross all lines.

That wasn’t blind optimism. Edison understood the process of scientific discovery. Big innovations don’t come at once but rather build slowly when small innovations are combined over time. And of course, we now know that this is exactly what happened! Somewhere, someone right now is inventing or discovering something that will utterly change the future. Coincidentally, on January 12, that same day, the Post ran this story, “The first long-distance wireless message was sent in France”.

Stay optimistic – and thank Ohio native Thomas Edison for the light that allows you to read this post!

 

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